Life After Assad Could Be Worse

Syria is unlike any other Arab country. It is home to adherents to many of the world’s oldest religions, tribal groupings and ancient cities. I have lived in Syria for two years, and have been visiting annually for the last decade. The Syrian landscape is dotted with reminders of past battles and the rise and fall of the Greeks, Romans, Mongols, Ottomans and recently the French. The Syrian people know the price of war. They are forced to take stock, by memories of blood spilled in Lebanon, by wars with Israel and now by daily clashes between armed protesters and Bashar al-Assad’s soldiers. The fear of impending chaos and losing more lives helps bolster Assad’s rule over a weary people.

Ed Husain

Ed Husain is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of "The Islamist" and blogs at The Arab Street. He is on Twitter as @Ed_Husain.

There’s good reason why 55 percent of Syrians polled recently still support Assad. They prefer his (flawed) promise of security and stability to the (untested) opposition’s offer of a democracy enveloped in blood. Assad’s appeal is not that he offers freedom, but security. And by killing mercilessly he illustrates that, like his father’s regime, he will use an iron fist to try to control Syria.

Much is in Assad’s favor. Iraqi refugees are ubiquitous in Syria, and they recount how post-Saddam Iraq went horribly wrong. Every Friday, clerics in most mosques openly pray for Assad’s victory over the “dissenters” and the “misguided” — this helps reinforce his legitimacy among a religious nation. Damascus and Aleppo, Syria’ largest cities and business hubs, remain subdued. The ruling Baath Party is intact. And unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, Syria’s armed forces have killed citizens, and been killed too.

It is impossible to tell whether Assad’s time is running out. Educated and Westernized friends of mine in Syria who once opposed Assad on political grounds and sought reform now support him because they fear the prospect of an all-out civil war between tribes, cities, Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Druze, Ismailis, Catholics, Protestants and assorted Orthodox Christians. Syria is a complex nation. Containing – not fanning – the current conflict is in everybody’s interests.

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