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How To Handicap A Horse Race Using Early Speed As A Factor |
22 Apr 2020 14:00 #381566
by chairman
Always tell someone how you feel because opportunities are lost in the blink of an eye but regret can last a lifetime.
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If you're trying to pick the winner in a horse race, you'll need to look at the most important factors and early speed is one of them. It doesn't matter if the race is long or short. Early speed matters even on turf where a lot of horses win from off the pace. Some people think that because a route race is a mile or longer it gives other horses time to close from behind, and therefore, the early speed runners tire and get passed at the finish line.
That's faulty logic in many cases. First of all, the horse that gets to the front or near the front of the pack can set its own pace. Even when there are several horses in front and they appear to be fighting for the lead, if they have experienced and skilled jockeys, they may just be loping along and pacing themselves, saving some "juice' for the stretch run.
Another advantage of being in front or near the lead is that there are fewer horses to cause traffic problems. When a horse must close from the back of the pack, it often has to go wide on the turn, giving up valuable ground to get past slower runners or those that are fading.
How do you know which horse has the early speed? There are several ways to determine which horses will go to the front of the pack. But before we discuss them, let's be clear on one thing. When we say early speed wins races, we don't mean it has to be the horse that is ahead of all the others. It may be an early pace run that races within a length or two of whichever horse has taken the lead. In many races, the winner may be found in the top three horses at the quarter pole.
Start by using whatever designation your program uses for denoting early speed. An E means a horse that goes to the very front and many times these runners need to be in front, no matter how much that may cost them in the late stages of the race. Pace figures are often given in the last races the horse ran. Finding the horse with the highest pace figures will tell you which horse will go for the lead. Try to keep your selection for win within the top three.
Then there are speed points. Speed points are given for the position of the horse in its prior races. The higher the speed points, the more likely the horse will go to the front of the pack or just off the leader.One good angle is to find a horse that had an extended layoff and came back to the races only to fade in the stretch. If it has had two races or more and faded but shows that early speed, it may have been run back into condition and is ready to win or place.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to www.amazon.com/Bill-Peterson/e/B0044XE19A/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper.
Article Source: EzineArticles.com/expert/Bill_Peterson/144212
Article Source: EzineArticles.com/9989020
That's faulty logic in many cases. First of all, the horse that gets to the front or near the front of the pack can set its own pace. Even when there are several horses in front and they appear to be fighting for the lead, if they have experienced and skilled jockeys, they may just be loping along and pacing themselves, saving some "juice' for the stretch run.
Another advantage of being in front or near the lead is that there are fewer horses to cause traffic problems. When a horse must close from the back of the pack, it often has to go wide on the turn, giving up valuable ground to get past slower runners or those that are fading.
How do you know which horse has the early speed? There are several ways to determine which horses will go to the front of the pack. But before we discuss them, let's be clear on one thing. When we say early speed wins races, we don't mean it has to be the horse that is ahead of all the others. It may be an early pace run that races within a length or two of whichever horse has taken the lead. In many races, the winner may be found in the top three horses at the quarter pole.
Start by using whatever designation your program uses for denoting early speed. An E means a horse that goes to the very front and many times these runners need to be in front, no matter how much that may cost them in the late stages of the race. Pace figures are often given in the last races the horse ran. Finding the horse with the highest pace figures will tell you which horse will go for the lead. Try to keep your selection for win within the top three.
Then there are speed points. Speed points are given for the position of the horse in its prior races. The higher the speed points, the more likely the horse will go to the front of the pack or just off the leader.One good angle is to find a horse that had an extended layoff and came back to the races only to fade in the stretch. If it has had two races or more and faded but shows that early speed, it may have been run back into condition and is ready to win or place.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to www.amazon.com/Bill-Peterson/e/B0044XE19A/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper.
Article Source: EzineArticles.com/expert/Bill_Peterson/144212
Article Source: EzineArticles.com/9989020
Always tell someone how you feel because opportunities are lost in the blink of an eye but regret can last a lifetime.
cricketwindies.com/forum/
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- mapoui
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23 Apr 2020 00:00 #381572
by mapoui
Interesting article Chairman but there is a more important factor than speed that has evolved in handicapping horse races over the past 20/30 years and is now of major if not first consideration...and that is..what the trainer is going to do with his horse in the race under consideration
you cant just walk into handicapping a race and consider each horse on its merits alone...assume that all are going to try to win the race and that is that.. it aint.
there are ways to measure a horse race called ability times that's pretty accurate..but you never see that in the figures in most places. I use that method and I am almost always right on with those. but you have to know when a trainer is going to "send his horse" or when he wont.
thats key right there. bang you are looking at a horse with speed, looks like he has form and he has the best figures..or figures with which he can win the race if he goes for it. you bet him with confidence but he never tries to win the race and you are frustrated totally. and if that has been happening to you often as it could happen easily you want t quit, give up because you don't know what is going on.
that began to happen to me and I became so frustrated..me who used to win everything in sight..pick the top 4 horses in races often in order. people at the track used to be amazed at my winning handicapping ability. then it stopped and the cutarse became almost unbearable. then I figured it out. the races had changed and I did not see it developing.
Trainers are businessmen too..and no less so the investors who buy horses and give them to train up and win their investment back, with a profit. and that is what they do..work out their horse, all they are and set up a program they can carry out. so they know where they will run the horse to win..at what distances, how not to exhaust the horse, get him to stud and having foals in the case of fillies
so they more or less have programs for all their hoses all the way through. and you have to work with that to try tell when the trainers is going to 'send' his horse..or try to with a race with the horse. that is now a crucial part of he handicapping process..as important as speed..indeed may be more important because if the trainer is not going to send his horse his speed is of no factor in the race
you cant just walk into handicapping a race and consider each horse on its merits alone...assume that all are going to try to win the race and that is that.. it aint.
there are ways to measure a horse race called ability times that's pretty accurate..but you never see that in the figures in most places. I use that method and I am almost always right on with those. but you have to know when a trainer is going to "send his horse" or when he wont.
thats key right there. bang you are looking at a horse with speed, looks like he has form and he has the best figures..or figures with which he can win the race if he goes for it. you bet him with confidence but he never tries to win the race and you are frustrated totally. and if that has been happening to you often as it could happen easily you want t quit, give up because you don't know what is going on.
that began to happen to me and I became so frustrated..me who used to win everything in sight..pick the top 4 horses in races often in order. people at the track used to be amazed at my winning handicapping ability. then it stopped and the cutarse became almost unbearable. then I figured it out. the races had changed and I did not see it developing.
Trainers are businessmen too..and no less so the investors who buy horses and give them to train up and win their investment back, with a profit. and that is what they do..work out their horse, all they are and set up a program they can carry out. so they know where they will run the horse to win..at what distances, how not to exhaust the horse, get him to stud and having foals in the case of fillies
so they more or less have programs for all their hoses all the way through. and you have to work with that to try tell when the trainers is going to 'send' his horse..or try to with a race with the horse. that is now a crucial part of he handicapping process..as important as speed..indeed may be more important because if the trainer is not going to send his horse his speed is of no factor in the race
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23 Apr 2020 00:09 #381573
by mapoui
a trainer can send a horse in obvious conditions...
when colt or filly is a HFC - horse for course...wins at that track
and also an HFC..wins at the distance..and can handle the distance easily
when a horse is also in the right classification for its abilities and in good form..and the rider the trainer puts up on his back for the race. if he puts a top competent rider up that also is sign that its a go.
there are other circumstances that are not so obvious in which a trainer may send his horse. you can get familiar with that by looking at the trainer..giving yourself opportunity to come to know him by playing one or two fave tracks and getting to know everybody working there.
paying attention to the trainers..the key factors in the horse racing picture and how they work. when you see them do successful things note it down. and when you see those factors developing again with that sane trainer in coming races pay close attention. if no others see it and you observation proves you you got a big winner
when colt or filly is a HFC - horse for course...wins at that track
and also an HFC..wins at the distance..and can handle the distance easily
when a horse is also in the right classification for its abilities and in good form..and the rider the trainer puts up on his back for the race. if he puts a top competent rider up that also is sign that its a go.
there are other circumstances that are not so obvious in which a trainer may send his horse. you can get familiar with that by looking at the trainer..giving yourself opportunity to come to know him by playing one or two fave tracks and getting to know everybody working there.
paying attention to the trainers..the key factors in the horse racing picture and how they work. when you see them do successful things note it down. and when you see those factors developing again with that sane trainer in coming races pay close attention. if no others see it and you observation proves you you got a big winner
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23 Apr 2020 00:19 #381574
by mapoui
by the same token..or another side of that same equation you look in the race entrants for the horse that fits the conditions of the race at hand..the most fit horse in the field. he is the likely one.
and most bettors will see that horse too and his odd will be low. but f he is going to win bet him anyway. that way you are building up a winning habit that is crucial. you wont see the long shots if you cant see the short shots.
betting the winner regardless of his odds sets you up that way..the right way. do not let winners pass you by because their odds are low. if you KNOW the horse is going to win the race bet it. that's the habit you want to inculcate and build confidence
all you are looking for is the winner of the race period..and that is what you come to see..the winner..what you come to find in your handicapping period. most times he will be short but at times he will be long. don't let him pass. if he is short you can increase your bet if you want to
and do not be afraid to pass races if you cant figure them out. no matter how good a handicapper is there are races that defy him. leave those races alone, relax and watch and learn
and most bettors will see that horse too and his odd will be low. but f he is going to win bet him anyway. that way you are building up a winning habit that is crucial. you wont see the long shots if you cant see the short shots.
betting the winner regardless of his odds sets you up that way..the right way. do not let winners pass you by because their odds are low. if you KNOW the horse is going to win the race bet it. that's the habit you want to inculcate and build confidence
all you are looking for is the winner of the race period..and that is what you come to see..the winner..what you come to find in your handicapping period. most times he will be short but at times he will be long. don't let him pass. if he is short you can increase your bet if you want to
and do not be afraid to pass races if you cant figure them out. no matter how good a handicapper is there are races that defy him. leave those races alone, relax and watch and learn
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23 Apr 2020 00:30 #381575
by mapoui
so the first thing I do is to try determine which of the horses in the race are there to try to win. and when I determine those then I look at speed, form, Trainer, rider, pedigree of those horses..HFC and HFD etc etc etc.
then I do the horses I tossed too..the horses I figured out wont be sent to try to win. I handicap them as well because there is one last piece to the puzzle..the POST PARADE BEFORE THE RACE!
that post parade can be crucial because if you know how forms looks on a horse you can tell who is ready to run, who has been prepped to run the race who isn't. if a horse is not in form it wont run well. and if you can tell which horses are ready to run by observation during the post parade and warm up - a good 15 to 20 minutes- it could solve the race for you
so speed..early speed is crucial all things being equal. but you got to come to know whats is really, actually equal in the race, and calculate that equality.
it is not as easy as it used to be when you could just go do horses... but not anymore. you got to watch and learn all the time the changes that take place all the time as well..or your pocket is toast
then I do the horses I tossed too..the horses I figured out wont be sent to try to win. I handicap them as well because there is one last piece to the puzzle..the POST PARADE BEFORE THE RACE!
that post parade can be crucial because if you know how forms looks on a horse you can tell who is ready to run, who has been prepped to run the race who isn't. if a horse is not in form it wont run well. and if you can tell which horses are ready to run by observation during the post parade and warm up - a good 15 to 20 minutes- it could solve the race for you
so speed..early speed is crucial all things being equal. but you got to come to know whats is really, actually equal in the race, and calculate that equality.
it is not as easy as it used to be when you could just go do horses... but not anymore. you got to watch and learn all the time the changes that take place all the time as well..or your pocket is toast
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23 Apr 2020 00:39 #381576
by mapoui
all things being equal speed is dominant. the horses that go to the front usually win..the closes hardly ever catch up.
for closers to win they require deadly speed duels up front that waste the speed allowing them to catch up tired horses fading backward.
measuring the horses in a race by ability times can give a punter a good idea of the closers in the race... if they are good enough to catch the speed anyway. every now and then they are and you have to come to know when they are so capable.
but one must know the dominant factors in racing and for me the foremost consideration currently is the Trainer... and when he is going to send his horse out to try to win a race..from when he is just going to prep his horse
for closers to win they require deadly speed duels up front that waste the speed allowing them to catch up tired horses fading backward.
measuring the horses in a race by ability times can give a punter a good idea of the closers in the race... if they are good enough to catch the speed anyway. every now and then they are and you have to come to know when they are so capable.
but one must know the dominant factors in racing and for me the foremost consideration currently is the Trainer... and when he is going to send his horse out to try to win a race..from when he is just going to prep his horse
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23 Apr 2020 01:45 #381583
by mapoui
I like posting man! this is a sweet subject for me. I can go on with this all day. I would like to see the board rise again. but it ain't working out
so remove my membership man. thank you!
so remove my membership man. thank you!
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