Belmont 2019

#7 Sir Winston...an interesting horse who won his races on the Woodbine artificial surface..in a an unlisted stakes and a MSW race. between those 2 he had a third in Grey stakes at Woodbine.. grade 3 race.

Sir Winston was transferred to the US and into graded stakes racing of the top order..4 stakes in succession. he was interfered with in the Blue Grass but he has been , 4, 5 and finally 2 in his last at Belmont on May 11, the Peter Pan stakes.

the Peter Pan was an excellent race and sets up Sir Winston very nicely for this race the Belmont. is he capable of winning the Belmont? interesting!

anything is possible and Sir W is another one of those closing horses, who the faster the race is run up front, the better his chances of catching up to to the speed and imposing himself on the race. this was demonstrated quite clearly in the Peter pan which was a very fast race indeed

but there is no speed like the Peter Pan in the Belmont...Sir Winston wont get that kind of help in this race. so I have been reducing his chances as a result. Sir Winston used to run early in Toronto at Woodbine but he has not run early for 4 races now.

he would be better off if he returned to his earlier style on the A at Woodbine. or if he is really good at a mile and half. his pedigree suggest that he will be good at a mile and half..at doing the D. but if the pace is moderate he is going to have to deal with horses racing to the wire with energy still left in their tanks. Sir Winston might not catch up at all

ability times
24:2 18 Tampa Bay Derby Grade 2
24:2 18 Withers Grade 3
Ph- form A
ES-Early speed 2 based on his Woodbine form

total ability points 38 running style late/closing
Trainer Mark Casse..top of the line/Rider Joel Rosario a former top rider now at best a question mark

to be honest I really don't know what spinoff has to offer here..he has not won any graded stakes races like Bourbon War has not and he has run 3 of them: the Louisiana Derby. one in Saratoga last year and the Kentucky Derby in which he was almost dead last

but he did score a 102 Beyer in the Louisiana Derby which is a handsome thing for a kid horse. and he began racing with a +80 Beyer and kept improving until the Derby which was wet and clearly not to his liking. then again his jockey in the derby...M Franco is not very good..so my tendency is to draw a line through that race, and to consider this the real test of Spinoff as a race horse..with Javier Castellano up on his back

3 back in the pedigree of Spinoff is none other than Northern Dancer a major route influence. then there are Turkoman and Mr Prospector. then on top and below we have Danzig and Gone West from Mr Prospector into Zaftig as Dam and Hardspun sire

Hardspun is a very strong sire who has produced top horses all around the world. Spinoff's dam side is full or very decent hardworking dams who produced good horses that often won decent money.

and by pedigree Spinoff can do the mile and a half required by the Belmont Stakes. now he is set to run with Castellano up he should be given a chance at the win..though of the 5 I have listed as top contenders he is prolly the least.

Abts - Ability times
24 20 Louisiana Derby
24 20 Maiden race at GP
ph ? after 18 place of 19 in the Kentucky Derby
Early Speed 4 maximum speed points

total ability points 44

racing style early speed type/Trainer top class/Jockey top class. and I love speed. if I have a bias is for speed horses..not late closing types who disappoint more than they succeed

Spinoff could be a late developer like his father and will do better as the year goes on and next year his fourth year

#8 should go off as the fave in this race. I don't see anything wrong with that. Horse has the pedigree to win this race and he has demonstrated every indication that he is a class horse

he began with a very high speed figure and has improved on that in his other 2 races to date. he was beaten in the Peter Pan by Sir Winston..but that's ok. he had trouble in that race and it was his second off a lay off, in which horse often regress a bit only to come back strong in their next and third race.

in horse racing third races in return cycles are often occasions for big efforts by horses and their connections. there is every incentive for that to be the case in the Belmont by IH and his connections

Abts
24 20 Peter Pan Stakes
24:4 16 N1x First Level Allowance
PH A
ES 2

Total Ability points 38

Running style I call rate-able. its a flexible thing giving the jockey the ability to use his horse as the race develops according to what is necessary to contend. Horse has a strong pedigree and only in experience in tuff company is he suspect. he did not cope with the Peter Pan and the trouble he experienced. but that could serve him in good stead in this race

#9 War of Will..the most experienced and successful horse in the race. his Preakness win was most impressive, fast time and clear win

forget about his pedigree..PD. when a horse has established his quality he is to be judged on what he has done almost totally. only where there is doubt ought his PD be used in order to sort out the log jam

note: WoW was beaten by Spinoff in the Louisiana Derby

Abts

24:1 19 Preakness Pim
25:1 14 Risen Star Grade 2 FG
PH A
ES 4 maximum speed points

Running style rate-able/Trainer and Rider have been hooked up on this horse since late November last year...Gaffalione and Casse

definite contender for the win they will IH must improve, Spinoff too. we will see soon about Tax and Tacitus

#4 Tax a strong contender in this race, strong Pedigree for the distance from some top sires Arch from Kris S/ and dam sire Giants causeway

23:4 21 Withers Stakes Grade 3
24:2 18 Wood Memorial Grade 2
PH ? Last race 15 place finish KD
ES 4 Maximum early speed points
total ability points 43

Running style stalk/slightly off the pace. began his racing with a good speed figure and has improved every race. he is also familiar with the New York racing circuit and tracks though he does not show a race at Belmont

Beaten by Tacitus in the Wood Memorial Tax is ridden by Irad Ortiz one of the top riders in New York and in racing generally/Trainer is Danny Gargan with whom I am not familiar but who has a nice record of performance as listed in the racing form

horse is likely in with a chance if he rebounds with form from his KD failure

#10 Tacitus

I don't particularly like Dam sire First Defence, but his daughter Close hatches was a dynamite race horse and is threatening to be a top class Dam given that her first foal is Tacitus

Abts
23 25 Tampa Bay Derby Grade 2 winner
24:2 18 MSW 70k Aqu
PH Q Third in the Kentucky Derby
ES 2
total Ability points 45

Tacitus can close powerfully and he can run early too. Pedigree appears strong enough for a mile and a half. his jockey and trainer are solid, top of their profession.

Tacitus has been excellently prepped for this race he is one of the ones

at this stage
Tacitus
Wow
Tax
IH stand out in that order. I do say that Spinoff can sooprise... and all of the rest can contend for parts of the hi 5

the pace of the race does not not seem that it will be as fast as I thought making it difficult for those coming late. those who will win should be the most in-form horses, who are most capable at the distance

the odds appear to be consistent with those horses...Tacitus, Wow, IH, Tax, Spinoff

if there is any kind of sooprise in the race it will be Tax who is at long odds as of right now. Bourbon War theoretically can sooprise I guess but I wont bet on him. Spinoff could be a sooprise given that he is right now 15 to one.

if he stays there..15 to 1 he warrants a mighty close look indeed because of his PD, his connections and the rider they have put on his back.

spinoff and tax are what at this stage, betting sooprises and upsets really are..horses that can, top connections, PD/rider, decent form etc., but ignored by the betting public for whatever reasons

if such horses pass the eye-test in the post parade they must be carefully considered

two approaches can be made use of with ability times, measured from the middle of the races of horses..between 4 and 6 furlongs:

1. select the horse from the top 3 betting choices on the board and use the one with the highest ability points

2. select the one with the highest ability points any way, regardless of odds and bet that one. that can work at times too, with high odds and great payoffs

one caution: horses without speed are usually bad bets no matter how high their ability times total is. the race must set up fr such horses if they are to win..usually the race has too much speed that implodes the race, wastes off the speed leaving the race to be picked up by the late horse

very often even with a lot of speed in the race the speed battles each other to the finish line leaving the closing horse trying to make up ground as the race is run out from under him

in racing speed is almost everything..decisive. closing is at the mercy of speed. if they run and waste energy he has a chance. if not the late horses are toast

Gonna check Everfast !

for part I hope..not for the whole. I don,t think Everfast has a chance of winning this Belmont